US Troops Leave Iraq: What Next?

US Troops Leave Iraq: What Next?

The last convoy of US troops left Iraq on December 18, 2011, marking the end of the nine-year US war in Iraq. But what does this ‘end’ mark the beginning of? In other words, what are they leaving behind: a fragile democracy and a still more fragile country that threatens to burst at its seams across ethnic lines? The question is, ‘What next’?

The US war in Iraq has been the costliest ever for the country—costing one trillion dollars in a mere nine years. At one time, the US had over 170,000 troops stationed in the country and over 500 bases. The American invasion was not merely against the tyrant regime of Saddam Hussein but against the man himself. Both were brought to a sudden brutal end. But what also ended was the peaceful co-existence of different Muslim sects and religious groups in Iraq. More than 100,000 Iraqis have been killed since the US forces took over in Iraq.  The demographic population of the Muslim sects in the country, predominantly the Sunni Arabs, the Shiites and the Sunni Kurds, has undergone a change since the collapse of the Saddam regime. In Iraq, though the Shiites are in a majority and the Sunnis constitute 35 to 40 per cent of the population, the latter’s representation in areas like the army and the police is dismal—some three per cent and two per cent respectively.  Figures such as these reflect the kind of violence and hatred that has prevailed between sects in the country since the arrival of US forces on Iraqi soil ironically with an agenda to establish peace there. Who ever heard of continual bomb blasts and other incidents of violence in Iraq under the ‘tyrant’ Saddam Hussein? Who ever saw such mass migration of Shiites and Sunnis to areas of their own sectarian dominance in the ‘oppressive’ regime of Saddam Hussein? And who had heard of prosecution of the seven to eight per cent Christians in the ‘despotic’ regime of Saddam Hussein? Though differences existed between ethnic groups, they were never so violently expressed in terms of suicide attacks and unabated series of bomb explosions that threaten the lives of the common people.

 The ethnic hatred and violence we see today is shocking as it operates at various levels: there are the attacks against the US backed government, the violence against the US forces, Sunni attacks against the Christians and most worryingly the fighting between the Sunnis and the Shiites. The terrorist groups have unleashed a kind of violence unprecedented in the annals of Iraq. For thousands of years, the Sabians lived in Iraq with no threat to their lives but now they are migrating to Europe and America. Under Saddam Hussein, the main ethnic groups lived in Iraq as Iraqis first and foremost. During the Iran-Iraq war in the eighties, the Shiites of Iraq along with the Sunnis fought against Iran that is a Shiite-majority nation. But now, the Sunnis and the Shiites are locked in a bitter battle and the Sunnis are viewing Christians as collaborators of the US forces and targeting them. The Sunnis clearly feel marginalized in a nation led by a Shiite prime minster. For two governments in a row, the posts of president, premier and parliament speaker have been handed out to a Shiite, a Sunni Arab and a Kurd, all with deputies of the other two groups. But analysts warn that this is a dangerous trend. It has affected the working of the government departments and it come to determine who is chosen to work in parliament and government ministries, as well as the security forces. The common people in Iraq now complain of being kept out of services due to their ethnic and religious background.  So what is Iraq heading towards? And what can be done?

It is necessary that the world forum, the Arab countries and particularly Iran, which with its Shiite majority population can clearly influence Shiite dominated Iraq, do not take advantage of the chaos in Iraq to fulfill their own interests. The terrorist groups should not be allowed to use Iraq as a safe haven for their acts, which they will unless they are thwarted. There is little of trust between Sunnis and Shiites at present which does not bode well for peace prospects in the country. It is time the UN comes forward to rescue Iraq from the crisis. It should ensure that Iraq’s neighbors, particularly Saudi Arabia and Iran, do not play a game across the Sunni-Shiite line to exert control over Iraq. We all know how the UN mutely watched as the US bombarded Iraq to curb Saddam Hussein and his Weapons of Mass Destruction (later found to be non-existing). It is now time for the UN to make up for its earlier lapse—for being merely a spectator of the US show of might against Iraq. It can put pressure on Iraq to get its equation right: the ethnic groups must have representation in military, army and the intelligence equal to their population so that no group feels marginalized. After all, the UN has asserted its supremacy in the past with miraculous effects: it helped the people of East Timor and more recently South Sudan gain independence The UN must call a special convention on Iraq and use its authority to compel the Iraqi government to ensure equal representation for all people. This is the only way Iraq can be saved from disintegration and a new cycle of bloodbath now that the US is vacating Iraq.